Kusukela ngesikhathi sendawo sesi-5, “i-oda lomkhawulo wamanani” we-EU ekuthunyelweni kukawoyela waseRussia ngolwandle usuqale ukusebenza ngokusemthethweni.Imithetho emisha izobeka inani lentengo lama-US $60 ngomphongolo wokuthunyelwa kukawoyela waseRussia.
Iphendula “umyalo womkhawulo wamanani” we-EU, iRussia ike yasho phambilini ukuthi ngeke inikeze imikhiqizo kawoyela nephethiloli emazweni abeka imingcele yamanani kuwoyela waseRussia.Ngabe lo mkhawulo wamanani uzoyithinta kangakanani inkinga yamandla aseYurophu?Yimaphi amathuba amahle okuthekelisa emakethe yamakhemikhali yasekhaya?
Ingabe ukulungisa amanani kuzosebenza?
Okokuqala nje, ake sibone ukuthi lo mkhawulo wamanani uyasebenza yini?
Ngokombiko okungosi ye-website kamagazini waseMelika i-National Interests, izikhulu zaseMelika zikholelwa ukuthi ukwehla kwentengo kwenza abathengi bakwazi ukuba nentengo obala futhi basebenzise amandla.Ngisho noma iRussia izama ukweqa umkhawulo wamanani nabathengi abangaphandle komfelandawonye, imali yabo engenayo isazocindezeleka.
Kodwa-ke, amanye amazwe amakhulu cishe ngeke ahambisane nesistimu yokubeka amanani futhi azothembela ezinsizeni zomshwalense ngaphandle kwalezo ze-EU noma ze-G7.Isakhiwo esiyinkimbinkimbi semakethe yempahla yomhlaba wonke sinikeza ithuba elingemuva kuwoyela waseRussia ngaphansi kwenswinyo ukuze bathole inzuzo enkulu.
Ngokombiko we-National Interest, ukusungulwa “kwenhlangano yabathengi” akukaze kwenzeke.Nakuba umqondo osekela umkhawulo wentengo kawoyela uhlakaniphile, uhlelo lomkhawulo wentengo luzokwandisa kuphela ukuphazamiseka kwemakethe yamandla yomhlaba wonke, kodwa ngeke libe nomthelela omkhulu ekwehliseni imali engenayo kawoyela waseRussia.Kuzo zombili izimo, imibono yabenzi benqubomgomo basentshonalanga mayelana nomphumela kanye nezindleko zezombangazwe zempi yabo yezomnotho ngokumelene neRussia izobuzwa.
I-Associated Press ibike ngomhlaka-3 ukuthi intengo ye-dollar engu-60 ayikwazanga ukulimaza iRussia, icaphuna abahlaziyi.Njengamanje, intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe waseRussia we-Ural yehle ngaphansi kuka-$60, kanti intengo yekusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe waseLondon Brent ingu-$85 umphongolo ngamunye.I-New York Post icaphune isibikezelo sabahlaziyi be-JPMorgan Chase sokuthi uma uhlangothi lwaseRussia luziphindiselela, intengo kawoyela ingase inyuke iye kuma-dollar angu-380 umphongolo ngamunye.
Owake waba nguNgqongqoshe wezeziMali wase-US, uMnuz Mnuchin wake wathi indlela yokunciphisa intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe waseRussia akuyona nje into engenakwenzeka, kodwa futhi igcwele izintuba.Uthe “ngenxa yokungeniswa budedengu kwemikhiqizo kawoyela ocolisisiwe yase-Europe, uwoyela ongahluziwe waseRussia usengagelezela e-Europe nase-United States ngaphandle kwemingcele inqobo nje uma udlula eziteshini zokuhamba, futhi ukucutshungulwa kwenani elengeziwe leziteshi zokuthutha kuyinzuzo engcono kakhulu kwezomnotho. , okuzoshukumisa i-India neTürkiye ukuba bandise imizamo yabo yokuthenga uwoyela ongahluziwe waseRussia kanye nokucwengisiswa kwemikhiqizo kawoyela ocolisisiwe ngezinga elikhulu, okungenzeka kube indawo entsha yokukhula komnotho kulawa mazwe ahambayo.”
Lesi sikhathi ngokungangabazeki sijulise inkinga yamandla aseYurophu.Nakuba i-inventory yegesi yemvelo yamazwe amaningi aseYurophu igcwele ngokugcwele, ngokusho kwesitatimende samanje saseRussia kanye nomkhuba wesikhathi esizayo eRussia impi yase-Ukraine, iRussia ngeke ihlehlise kalula kulokhu, futhi mhlawumbe umkhawulo wamanani uwukukhohlisa nje.
UNgqongqoshe Wezangaphandle waseRussia u-Sergei Lavrov uthe ngoDisemba 1 ukuthi iRussia ayinandaba nokubekwa entshonalanga kwentengo kawoyela waseRussia, ngoba iRussia izoqedela ngqo ukuthengiselana nabalingani bayo futhi ngeke inikeze uwoyela emazweni asekela ukumiswa kukawoyela waseRussia. intengo uphahla.Ngosuku olufanayo, iPhini Lokuqala likaMongameli weBhange Elikhulu laseRussia u-Yudayeva uthe eminyakeni yamuva nje, imakethe kawoyela yamazwe ngamazwe iye yabhekana ngokuphindaphindiwe nokuguquguquka okunobudlova.Umnotho waseRussia kanye nesistimu yezezimali ibonise ukuqina kumthelela wemakethe yamandla, futhi iRussia isilungele noma yiluphi ushintsho.
Ngabe izindlela zokunciphisa amanani kawoyela zizoholela ekutholakaleni kukawoyela okuqinile emhlabeni jikelele?
Ngokombono wesu ukuthi iYurophu ne-United States azizange zivimbe ngokuphelele ukuthunyelwa kukawoyela waseRussia, kodwa zathatha izinyathelo zophahla lwamanani, iYurophu ne-United States banethemba lokunciphisa izindleko zempi eMoscow futhi bazame ukungabi nomthelela omkhulu kuwoyela womhlaba. ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo.Kubikezelwa kusukela kulezi zici ezintathu ezilandelayo ukuthi izinga elingenzeka lomkhawulo wentengo kawoyela ngeke liholele ekutholakaleni okuqinile kukawoyela kanye nesidingo.
Okokuqala, umkhawulo wentengo omkhulu wama-$60 uyintengo engeke iholele ekutheni iRussia ingakwazi ukuthekelisa uwoyela.Siyazi ukuthi intengo ejwayelekile yokuthengisa kawoyela waseRussia kusukela ngoJuni kuya ku-Okthoba yayingamadola angama-71, futhi intengo yesaphulelo yokuthekelisa uwoyela waseRussia eNdiya ngo-Okthoba yayicishe ibe ngamadola angama-65.NgoNovemba, ngaphansi kwethonya lezinyathelo zokunciphisa amanani kawoyela, uwoyela wase-Ural wehla ngaphansi kwama-yuan angama-60 izikhathi eziningi.Ngomhla zingama-25 kuNovemba, intengo yokuthunyelwa kawoyela waseRussia e-Primorsk Port yayingamadola angu-51.96 kuphela, cishe amaphesenti angama-40 aphansi kunowoyela ongahluziwe we-Brent.Ngo-2021 nangaphambili, intengo yokuthengisa kawoyela waseRussia nayo ivame ukuba ngaphansi kwama- $ 60.Ngakho-ke, akunakwenzeka ukuthi iRussia ingathengisi uwoyela lapho ibhekene nenani eliphansi kune-$ 60.Uma iRussia ingawuthengisi uwoyela, izolahlekelwa ingxenye yemali engenayo yezimali.Kuzoba nezinkinga ezinkulu ekusebenzeni kwezwe nasekusindeni kwamasosha.Ngakho-ke,
izinyathelo zokunciphisa amanani angeke ziholele ekwehlisweni kokuhlinzekwa kukawoyela emhlabeni jikelele.
Okwesibili, uwoyela waseVenezuela uzobuyela eJianghu, okuyisixwayiso eRussia.
Ngosuku olwandulela ukungena okusemthethweni kokuvinjelwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe kanye nomkhawulo wentengo kawoyela, uMongameli waseMelika uBiden kungazelelwe ukhiphe izindaba ezinhle eVenezuela.Ngomhla zingama-26 kuLwezi, uMgcinimafa wase-US wavumela isikhondlakhondla samandla sakwa-Chevron ukuthi siqale kabusha ibhizinisi layo lokuhlola uwoyela eVenezuela.
Kufanele kuqashelwe ukuthi eminyakeni yamuva nje, i-United States iye yavumela ngokulandelana amazwe amathathu akhiqiza amandla, okuyi-Iran, Venezuela neRussia.Manje, ukuze kugwenywe ukuqhubeka kweRussia ukusebenzisa izikhali zamandla, i-United States ikhipha uwoyela waseVenezuela ukuze uhlole futhi ulinganise.
Ukuguqulwa kwenqubomgomo kahulumeni waseBiden kuwuphawu olucacile.Esikhathini esizayo, hhayi i-Chevron kuphela, kodwa nezinye izinkampani zikawoyela zingaqala kabusha ibhizinisi labo lokuhlola uwoyela eVenezuela nganoma yisiphi isikhathi.Njengamanje, ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela kwansuku zonke kweVenezuela kumayelana nemiphongolo ye-700000, kuyilapho ngaphambi kwezigwegwe, ukukhiqizwa kwayo kwansuku zonke kawoyela kudlula imiphongolo eyizigidi ezi-3.Ochwepheshe bezimboni babikezela ukuthi amandla okukhiqiza uwoyela ongahluziwe waseVenezuela azobuyela ngokushesha emiphongolweni eyisigidi esi-1 ngosuku phakathi nezinyanga ezi-2-3.Phakathi nengxenye yonyaka, ingalulama ibe imiphongolo eyizigidi ezi-3 ngosuku.
Okwesithathu, uwoyela wase-Iranian nawo uhlikihla izandla.Ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule, i-Iran ibixoxisana ne-Europe kanye ne-United States, ngethemba lokuthi izosebenzisa udaba lwenuzi ukuze isuse unswinyo lukawoyela kanye nokwandisa ukuthunyelwa kukawoyela kwamanye amazwe.Umnotho wase-Iran ubunzima kakhulu eminyakeni yamuva nje, futhi izingxabano zasekhaya ziye zadlondlobala.Iyaqhubeka nokwandisa ukuthunyelwa kukawoyela ukuze kuphile.Uma iRussia inciphisa ukuthunyelwa kukawoyela emazweni angaphandle, kuyithuba elihle lokuthi i-Iran yandise ukuthunyelwa kukawoyela kwamanye amazwe.
Okwesine, njengoba amazwe amaningi eqhubeka nokukhuphula izinga lenzalo ukuze alawule ukwehla kwamandla emali, ukukhula komnotho emhlabeni wonke kuzokwehla ngo-2023, futhi isidingo samandla sizoncipha.I-OPEC yenze izibikezelo ezinjalo izikhathi eziningi.Ngisho noma i-Europe ne-United States zingabeka unswinyo lwentengo kumandla aseRussia, ukunikezwa kukawoyela ongahluziwe emhlabeni wonke kungafinyelela ibhalansi eyisisekelo.
Ingabe umkhawulo wentengo kawoyela uzoholela ekwenyukeni okukhulu kwamanani kawoyela emhlabeni wonke?
Ngomhla zi-3 kuZibandlela, lapho kubhekwa umkhawulo wentengo kawoyela waseRussia ozoqaliswa ngoDisemba 5, amanani entengo kawoyela we-Brent futures azolile, avala ngamadola angama-85,42 umphongolo ngamunye, ngo-1.68% ephansi kunosuku lwangaphambili lokuhweba.Ngokusekelwe ekuhloleni okuphelele kwezinto ezihlukahlukene, umkhawulo wentengo kawoyela unganciphisa kuphela intengo kawoyela, kodwa ungaholeli ekwenyukeni kwentengo kawoyela.Njengoba nje ongoti balo nyaka abaphakamise ukuthi unswinyo olubhekiswe kweRussia luzoholela ekwenyukeni kwentengo kawoyela behluleka ukubona intengo kawoyela elinganiselwa ku-$150, ngeke bayibone intengo kawoyela engaphezu kwekhulu engahlala amasonto amabili ngo-2023.
Okokuqala, ibhalansi phakathi kokunikezwa kukawoyela emhlabeni wonke kanye nesidingo iye yasungulwa ngemva kwempi.Ngemuva kwezinxushunxushu zokuhlinzekwa kwezidingo kanye nesidingo kwikota yesibili, i-Europe isiphinde yakha kabusha isiteshi esisha sokuphakelwa kukawoyela esingancikile eRussia, okuyisisekelo sokwehla kwentengo kawoyela emhlabeni ngekota yesithathu.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, nakuba amazwe amabili anobungane aseRussia anda ingxenye yokuthengwa kukawoyela evela eRussia, bobabili bahlala cishe ku-20%, bengafinyeleli ekuthembeleni kwe-EU kumafutha aseRussia angaba ngu-45% ngaphambi kuka-2021. Ngisho noma ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela waseRussia kuyeka. , ngeke kube nomthelela omubi ekuhlinzekweni kukawoyela emhlabeni wonke.
Okwesibili, iVenezuela ne-Iran basilinde ngabomvu isikhundla esiphezulu.Amandla okukhiqiza uwoyela kulawa mazwe womabili angakuqeda ngokuphelele ukuncipha kokuhlinzekwa kukawoyela okubangelwa ukuvalwa kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela waseRussia.Ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo ngokuyisisekelo kuyalingana, futhi intengo ayikwazi ukukhuphuka.
Okwesithathu, ukuthuthukiswa kwemithombo yamandla emisha njengamandla omoya namandla elanga, kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwe-bioenergy, kuzothatha indawo yesidingo samandla athile e-petrochemical, nakho okungenye yezinto ezivimbela ukunyuka kwamanani kawoyela.
Okwesine, ngemva kokuqaliswa kophahla lukawoyela waseRussia, ngokusekelwe ebudlelwaneni bokuqhathaniswa kwentengo, ukunyuka kukawoyela okungewona waseRussia kuzovinjelwa intengo ephansi kawoyela waseRussia.Uma i-Middle East Petroleum 85 ne-Russian Petroleum 60 inobudlelwano obuzinzile bokuqhathanisa amanani, lapho intengo ye-Middle East petroleum ikhuphuka kakhulu, amanye amakhasimende azogelezela ku-Russian Petroleum.Lapho intengo kawoyela eMpumalanga Ephakathi yehla kakhulu ngesisekelo sama-85, iYurophu ne-United States zizokwehlisa intengo kawoyela waseRussia, ukuze amanani amabili afinyelele ukulingana okusha.
"Uhlelo lomkhawulo wamanani" lwaseNtshonalanga luvusa imakethe yamandla
I-Russia ifuna ukusungula "umfelandawonye wegesi yemvelo"
Kubikwa ukuthi abanye abahlaziyi nezikhulu baxwayise ngokuthi “umyalo womkhawulo wamanani” wasentshonalanga ungase ucasule iMoscow futhi uwenze inqamule ukuhlinzekwa kwegesi yemvelo emazweni aseYurophu.Kusukela ngoJanuwari kuya ku-Okthoba kulo nyaka, amazwe aseYurophu angenisa igesi yemvelo engama-42% eyengeziwe evela eRussia kunenkathi efanayo ngo-2021. Ukunikezwa kweRussia igesi yemvelo ewuketshezi emazweni aseYurophu kwafinyelela irekhodi elingu-17.8 cubic metres.
Kwabikwa nokuthi iRussia yayixoxa ngokusungulwa “komfelandawonye wegesi yemvelo” neKazakhstan ne-Uzbekistan.Okhulumela uMengameli waseKazakh uKassym Jomart Tokayev uthe lolu wuhlelo olubekwe nguMengameli waseRussia uPutin.
U-Peskov uthe umqondo wokusungula umfelandawonye wawusekelwe ikakhulukazi ekucutshungulweni kohlelo lokuhlinzekwa kwamandla okudidiyelwe, kodwa imininingwane isaxoxisana.U-Peskov uphakamise ukuthi iKazakhstan ingonga “amashumi ezigidigidi zamaRandi asetshenziswa kumapayipi” ngokungenisa igesi yemvelo yaseRussia.U-Peskov uphinde wathi lolu hlelo luthemba ukuthi la mazwe amathathu azoqinisa ukusebenzisana futhi athuthukise ingqalasizinda yawo yokusebenzisa igesi yasekhaya kanye nengqalasizinda yezokuthutha.
Likuphi ithuba lemakethe?
Ukuntuleka kwamandla eYurophu kanye nokukhuphuka okubukhali kwentengo kuzoholela ekusweleni okwengeziwe kwegesi yemvelo esetshenziselwa ukukhiqizwa kwezimboni, futhi izindleko zokukhiqiza amakhemikhali aseYurophu zizokhuphuka kakhulu.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukushoda kwamandla kanye nezindleko eziphezulu kungase kuholele ekuncishisweni komthwalo wezitshalo zamakhemikhali wendawo, okuholela egebeni elikhulu ekuhlinzekweni kwamakhemikhali, okuqhubekisele phambili ukukhuphuka okubukhali kwentengo yemikhiqizo yendawo eYurophu.
Njengamanje, umehluko wentengo weminye imikhiqizo yamakhemikhali phakathi kweChina neYurophu uyakhula, futhi umthamo wokuthekelisa wemikhiqizo yamakhemikhali aseShayina kulindeleke ukuthi ukhuphuke kakhulu.Ngokuzayo, inzuzo yokuhlinzekwa kweShayina kumandla endabuko namandla amasha kulindeleke ukuthi iqhubeke, inzuzo yezindleko zamakhemikhali aseShayina ahlobene neYurophu izoqhubeka nokuba khona, futhi ukuncintisana komhlaba wonke kanye nokwenza inzuzo kwemboni yamakhemikhali yaseChina kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke kuthuthuke.
I-Guohai Securities ikholelwa ukuthi ingxenye yamanje yemboni yamakhemikhali eyisisekelo isesimweni esihle: phakathi kwabo, kukhona ukulindela ukuthuthukiswa okuncane embonini yezindlu zasekhaya, okuyinto enhle kumkhakha we-polyurethane kanye ne-soda ash;I-European energy crisis fermentation, egxile ezinhlobonhlobo zamavithamini ezinamandla okukhiqiza aphezulu eYurophu;Uchungechunge lwemboni yamakhemikhali e-phosphorus engezansi lunezici zemboni yamakhemikhali ezolimo kanye nokukhula kwamandla amasha;Umkhakha wamasondo inzuzo yawo ibuyiselwa kancane kancane.
I-polyurethane: Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukwethulwa kwe-Article 16 yenqubomgomo yokusekelwa kwezimali zezindlu kuzosiza ekuthuthukiseni umkhawulo wemakethe yezindlu zasekhaya futhi kukhuthaze isidingo se-polyurethane;Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amandla okukhiqiza e-MDI kanye ne-TDI eYurophu abangela ingxenye enkulu.Uma inkinga yamandla iqhubeka nokubola, ukuphuma kwe-MDI ne-TDI e-Europe kungase kwehle, okuyinto enhle ekuthunyelweni kwemikhiqizo yasekhaya.
Umlotha wesoda: Uma imakethe yezindlu zasekhaya ithuthukiswa kancane kancane, kuzoba kuhle ukuthi isidingo sengilazi eyisicaba silungiswe.Ngesikhathi esifanayo, umthamo omusha wengilazi ye-photovoltaic uzophinde uqhube isidingo somlotha we-soda.
Amavithamini: Amandla okukhiqiza uvithamini A kanye novithamini E eYurophu abala ingxenye enkulu.Uma inkinga yamandla e-Europe iqhubeka nokuvubela, ukuphuma kukavithamini A no-vitamin E kungase kunciphe futhi, kusekele inani.Ngaphezu kwalokho, inzuzo yokuzalanisa izingulube ezifuywayo iye yaba ngcono kancane kancane esikhathini esizayo esiseduze, okulindeleke ukuthi ivuse umdlandla wabalimi ukuze bangezelele, ngaleyo ndlela ikhuthaze isidingo samavithamini nezinye izithasiselo zokudla.
Imboni yamakhemikhali e-Phosphorus: Ngokudedelwa kwesidingo sokugcinwa kukamanyolo ebusika, intengo kamanyolo we-phosphate kulindeleke ukuthi izinze futhi inyuke;Ngesikhathi esifanayo, isidingo se-iron phosphate sezimoto ezintsha zamandla kanye nokugcinwa kwamandla siyaqhubeka nokuba namandla.
Amathayi: Ekuqaleni, njengoba amathayi ayevaleleke emachwebeni aseMelika aguqulwa abe yi-inventory yabathengisi, i-inventory yeziteshi zaseMelika yayiphezulu, kodwa
Ngokugqugquzelwa kokuya endaweni yokugcina izimpahla, ama-oda okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ezinkampani zamathaya kulindeleke ukuthi alulame kancane kancane.
I-JinDun Chemicalinezitshalo zokucubungula ze-OEM e-Jiangsu, e-Anhui nakwezinye izindawo eziye zabambisana amashumi eminyaka, zinikeza ukusekelwa okuqinile kwezinsizakalo zokukhiqiza ezenziwe ngokwezifiso zamakhemikhali akhethekile.I-JinDun Chemical iphikelela ekudaleni iqembu elinamaphupho, lenze imikhiqizo enesithunzi, ecophelelayo, eqinile, futhi iphume konke ukuze ibe uzakwethu othembekile nomngane wamakhasimende!Zama ukwenzaizinto ezintsha zamakhemikhaliulethe ikusasa elingcono emhlabeni!
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jan-03-2023