1.Asian March petrochemical amanani exubile
Ngokusho kwe-ICIS Singapore, ngoMashi, imikhiqizo ye-petrochemical kumaketanga amanani ahlukene e-Asia yabonisa izitayela zamanani ahlukene ngenxa yezinguquko ebhalansi yokuhlinzeka nokufunwa.Kusukela ngesikhathi sokushicilela, ingxenye yemikhiqizo engama-31 ye-petrochemical embozwe i-ICIS Asia Price Forecast ibe nezintengo ezimaphakathi eziphansi ngoMashi kunoFebhuwari.
Isidingo sisonke eChina saqala ukululama ngoMashi, kusho i-ICIS.Imisebenzi e-China isethelwe ukuthi iqhubeke futhi njengoba imikhawulo yobhubhane iba lula.Izintengo ze-polyester e-China zibone ukukhuphuka okuqinile ngoMashi, okukhuliswe ukusebenza okuqinile kwezokuvakasha nemisebenzi yangaphandle, futhi ukuvalwa okungahleliwe kwekota yokuqala nakho kuzokhuphula inani lentengo ye-acrylic acid ngoMashi.Ukuguquguquka kwamanani entengo kawoyela ongahluziwe kungase kwengeze nakakhulu ekungaqinisekini mayelana nezitayela zamanani.Amanani e-US benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ehlile, ecindezela amanani e-naphtha ngaphansi kwe-$700/mt maphakathi nenyanga.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukufunwa kweminye imikhakha efana nezindawo ezithengiswayo kanye nezimoto e-Asia kungase kubonise ukuthuthukiswa okuncane, kodwa ngeke kwanele ukudambisa ukukhathazeka.Isilinganiso senani lentengo ye-disonyl phthalate (DINP) kanye notshwala be-oxo, okuhlobene eduze nemboni yezokwakha, kwehle ngoMashi.Izintengo zeminye imikhiqizo, njenge-propylene ne-polypropylene (PP), zizohlala zisindwa kakhulu umthamo omusha.Amanani e-ethylene nawo aphenduka aba buthaka ngoMashi, kodwa amanani ajwayelekile ngoMashi ayesephezulu kunoFebhuwari ngenxa yephoyinti eliphezulu lokuqala ekuqaleni kukaMashi.
Ukubuyiselwa kwesidingo se-China kwikota yokuqala bekuhluke ngokwesakhiwo, nokululama ngokushesha ezimpahleni zabathengi ezingahlali isikhathi eside, kodwa ukubuya okunensayo kwezimpahla ezihlala isikhathi eside notshalomali.Embonini yezokudla nezokuvakasha, ngokwemininingwane evela eMnyangweni Wezokuthutha waseChina, ngoFebhuwari, amadolobha angama-54 aseShayina anezitimela zasemadolobheni kanye nesitimela esihamba ngaphansi komhlaba athutha ingqikithi yabagibeli abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-2.18, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngama-39.6%, okungaphezulu kwesibalo isilinganiso somthamo wabagibeli wanyanga zonke ngo-2019 u-9.6%.Ukwanda kwezimoto zikaloliwe ezinyangeni ezimbili ezedlule zika-2023 nakho kukhombisa ukululama okuqinile kohambo lokuhlangana eChina.I-FMCG e-Asia izoqhutshwa ngamandla ukwenyuka kwemisebenzi yangaphandle futhi izokhulisa isidingo sama-polymers.Ukupakishwa kokudla kanye nokusetshenziswa kwesiphuzo kuzosekela amanani e-PP kanye ne-bottle-grade polyethylene terephthalate (PET)."Ukwenyuka kokuthengwa kwezingubo kuzozuzisa imboni ye-polyester," kusho umhlaziyi omkhulu we-ICIS uJenny Yi.
Ukungaqiniseki okubalulekile kusasele kwezinye izindawo zokusetshenziswa kwabasebenzisi bokugcina, okuholela emizweni eqaphile yemakethe.Emkhakheni wezimoto, ukuthengiswa ngoJanuwari nangoFebhuwari 2023 kwehle unyaka nonyaka njengoba ikhefu lentela yokuthengwa kwezimoto zase-China kanye noxhaso lwezimoto zikagesi kuphelelwa yisikhathi ekupheleni kuka-2022. Isidingo esivela embonini yezokwakha e-Asia siqhubekile nokuba buthaka.Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kwahlala kuntekenteke phakathi kokwehla kwamandla emali emhlabeni wonke kanye nezingcindezi zesidingo se-polyolefin.
I-ICIS ikholelwa ukuthi amandla amasha okukhiqiza azoba enye inkinga ebalulekile ebhekene nengcindezi yokwehla emananini emikhiqizo ethile ye-petrochemical e-Asia kulo nyaka.Ukugunyazwa kwamayunithi amabili amakhulu e-naphtha cracker kanye nokuphuma kokunye maphakathi no-February kuzoqhubeza nokuhlinzeka ngokweqile ngeminye imikhiqizo efana ne-polyethylene (PE) ne-PP.Uma kuqhathaniswa nochungechunge lwezimboni ze-ethylene, amaketanga emboni ye-propylene ne-PP athinteka kakhulu amandla amasha okukhiqiza.Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi amaphrojekthi amaningi amasha e-propane dehydrogenation (PDH) azosebenza kulo nyaka.Kusukela ngoMashi kuya ku-Ephreli kulo nyaka, i-Asia izoba namathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.6/ngonyaka wekhono elisha lokukhiqiza i-propylene elihlelelwe ukuthi liqale ukusebenza.Njengoba ibhekene nenani eliphakeme lokukhula kwamandla, amanani entengo yase-Asian PP kulindeleke ukuthi ehle ngoMashi nango-Ephreli.
"Ngaphezu kwe-140,000 amathani e-ethylene kulindeleke ukuthi athunyelwe esuka e-US eya e-Asia engxenyeni yesibili, okuzokwenza ukuthi imakethe iqaphele kakhulu," kusho u-Amy Yu, umhlaziyi ophezulu we-ICIS.Futhi, imali engenayo evela kwezinye izifunda ingase igcine i-Asia ihlinzekwa kahle ngemva kukaMashi.Izimpahla ze-PP, PE kanye ne-ethylene eMpumalanga Ephakathi ziya ngokuya zilulama njengoba ukuvalwa kwesizini kwesifunda kuncipha ekupheleni kukaMashi.Ngokukhula kokulethwa kwezimpahla ezimakethe zasekhaya zaseShayina kanye namanani aphezulu kwezinye izifunda, abanye abakhiqizi be-PP bazoqhubeka nokuthekelisa imithwalo ye-PP eyengeziwe kwezinye izifunda, okuhlanganisa i-Southeast Asia, South Asia kanye ne-Southern Africa.Lokhu kugeleza kwezohwebo okusekelwe efasiteleni le-arbitrage kungase futhi kuthinte amathrendi entengo kwezinye izifunda.
I-2.S&P Global: I-polyethylene yomhlaba wonke namamajini enzuzo ye-propylene azohlala ephansi
Muva nje, izinhloko ezimbalwa ze-S&P Global Commodity Insights zishilo ku-World Petrochemical Conference e-Houston ukuthi zombili izimboni ze-polyethylene kanye ne-propylene zizoba nemingcele yenzuzo ephansi ngenxa yokungalingani phakathi kokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa.
UJesse Tijelina, inhloko yama-polymers omhlaba wonke kwa-S&P Global, uthe ukungalingani okukhulu phakathi kokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo sekufake imakethe yomhlaba wonke ye-polyethylene emgodini, futhi inzuzo yemboni ye-polyethylene ingase ingalulami kuze kube u-2024 ekuqaleni, kanti ezinye izimboni zizophumelela. kufanele ivalwe unomphela.
U-Tijelina uthe kusukela ngo-2012 kuya ku-2017, izinga lokukhula lokuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo se-polyethylene resin lalicishe lifane, kodwa amandla okukhiqiza adlula isidingo ngamathani ayizigidi ezingu-10 ngonyaka.Ngo-2027, umthamo omusha uzodlula isidingo esisha ngamathani ayizigidi ezi-3 ngonyaka.Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, imakethe ye-polyethylene ikhula ngesilinganiso esingamathani ayizigidi ezi-4 ngonyaka.Uma ukwengezwa kwamandla kuyekwa manje, imakethe isazothatha iminyaka emi-3 ukuthi ilinganisele futhi."Uma sibheka emuva ku-2022, kunabakhiqizi abaningi abavale okwesikhashana izimpahla ezibiza kakhulu, futhi sikholelwa ukuthi amandla amaningi avaliwe okwesikhashana azovalwa unomphela esikhathini esizayo," kusho uTijelina.
ULarry Tan, inhloko yesifunda sase-Asia-Pacific, uthe ukwanda komthamo we-propane dehydrogenation (PDH) kuholele ekwandeni okukhulu kwemakethe ye-propylene, okuzogcina umkhawulo wenzuzo wemboni ye-propylene usezingeni eliphansi kuze kube ngu-2025. Imboni ye-propylene yomhlaba wonke okwamanje isesimweni esibucayi, futhi imingcele yenzuzo ngeke ibe ngcono kuze kube ngu-2025 ekuqaleni.Ngo-2022, ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zokukhiqiza kanye nesidingo esibuthakathaka kuzogcina amamajini enzuzo ephansi noma kube kubi kubakhiqizi abaningi be-propylene e-Asia naseYurophu.Kusukela ngo-2020 kuya ku-2024, ukukhula komthamo we-polymer kanye ne-chemical grade propylene kulindeleke ukuthi kube phezulu ngokuphindwe izikhathi ezingu-2.3 kunokukhula kwesidingo.
Kodwa-ke, u-Tan uphinde wathi ama-margins kufanele "abe mahle uma kuqhathaniswa" kubo bonke abakhiqizi ngaphandle kwama-naphtha crackers eNtshonalanga Yurophu ngo-2028. Imithombo emibili emikhulu ye-propylene embonini ye-petrochemical yi-PDH kanye ne-refinery catalytic cracking.I-S&P Global ilindele ukuthi uguquko lwamandla lwehlise isidingo sikaphethiloli wezimoto, omunye wemiphumela ezoba ngukuncipha kokuqhekeka kwemisebenzi."Ngakho-ke lapho isidingo se-propylene yomhlaba wonke siqhubeka, ukushoda kwe-propylene kufanele kugcwaliswe ndawana thize," kusho uTan.Amayunithi e-PDH ngeke abone inzuzo enkulu kuze kube yileso sikhathi.
3.Ukuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa okungalindelekile kwe-OPEC kukhuthaza ukwenyuka kwamanani kawoyela emhlabeni wonke
Njengoba amalungu e-Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) ememezele ngokungalindelekile ukwehla okukhulu ekukhiqizeni, amanani entengo kawoyela ongahluziwe wamazwe ngamazwe akhuphuke kakhulu ngaphezu kuka-6% ekupheleni komhla wesi-3.
Kusukela ngasekupheleni kosuku, intengo yekusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe wokulethwa ngoMeyi ku-New York Mercantile Exchange ikhuphuke ngo-$4.75 ukuvala ngo-$80.42 umphongolo, okukhuphuke ngo-6.28%.Ikusasa laseLondon Brent elingahluziwe lokulethwa kukaJuni likhuphuke ngo-$5.04, noma u-6.31%, ukuvala ngo-$84.93 umgqomo.
I-OPEC yamemezela ngomhlaka-3 ukuthi i-Joint Technical Committee ye-OPEC kanye namazwe angewona ama-OPEC akhiqiza uwoyela aphawule emhlanganweni owawubanjwe ngosuku olufanayo lapho amalungu e-OPEC amemezele ngomhlaka-2 ukuthi azoqala uhlelo lokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa ngokuzithandela ngesilinganiso sansuku zonke. wemiphongolo eyizigidi eziyi-1.157 eqala ngoMeyi.Kuyisinyathelo sokuqapha ukusimamisa imakethe kawoyela.Ngokuhambisana nesilinganiso sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwansuku zonke kwe-Russia kwemiphongolo engu-500,000 kuze kube sekupheleni kwalo nyaka, inani eliphelele lokuncishiswa kokukhiqizwa kokuzithandela ngamazwe amakhulu akhiqiza uwoyela lizofinyelela cishe imiphongolo eyizigidi eziyi-1.66 ngosuku.
U-Vivek Dahl, umhlaziyi wezimpahla zamandla e-Commonwealth Bank yase-Australia, uthe isinqumo sakamuva samalungu e-OPEC sibonisa ukuthi umphumela wokuncishiswa kokukhiqiza ungase ube namandla kunangaphambili.
I-UBS Group iyaqhubeka nokugcina umbono omuhle ngamanani kawoyela, ibikezela ukuthi amanani kawoyela we-Brent azofinyelela ku-$100 umphongolo ngo-June walo nyaka.
I-JIN DUN CHEMICALyakhe isisekelo sokukhiqiza esikhethekile (i-meth) se-acrylic monomer esifundazweni sase-ZHEJIANG.Lokhu kuqinisekisa ukunikezwa okuzinzile kwe-HEMA, HPMA, HEA, HPA, GMA enekhwalithi ephezulu.Ama-acrylate monomers ethu akhethekile asetshenziswa kabanzi kuma-resins we-acrylic thermosetting, ama-polymers emulsion crosslinkable, i-acrylate anaerobic adhesive, i-adhesive acrylate enezingxenye ezimbili, i-solvent acrylate adhesive, i-emulsion acrylate adhesive, i-ejenti yokuqeda iphepha kanye nezinsalela zokudweba ze-acrylic ziphinde zakha inhlaka entsha yokunamathisela. kanye (imeth) ekhethekile yama-acrylic monomers kanye nokuphuma kwayo.Njenge-fluorinated acrylate monomers, Ingasetshenziswa kabanzi ku-ejenti yokulinganisa, opende, oyinki, ama-photosensitive resins, izinto ezibonakalayo, ukwelashwa kwefayibha, isilungisi sepulasitiki noma insimu yenjoloba.Sihlose ukuba umphakeli ophezulu emkhakheni weama-acrylate monomers akhethekile, ukwabelana ngolwazi lwethu olucebile nemikhiqizo yekhwalithi engcono kanye nesevisi yobungcweti.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Apr-07-2023